The scandal over B.C.’s botched budget numbers took a new turn this week, with Premier David Eby admitting his government overestimated how much the public will collect from fracking.

The Energy Minister blamed “human error,” saying that staff discovered $300 million a year in phantom revenue back in July, caused by mistakes in an Excel spreadsheet.

Apparently nobody bothered to tell the Premier. Last week, Eby was still telling reporters he was unaware of any problem with the budget. Opposition parties are calling for an investigation.

It would be good to know who screwed up, and to know if the new numbers are reliable. But this controversy over gas revenue has shone a light on a much bigger story.

For years the BC NDP has promised to secure a better deal for British Columbians, by renegotiating the arcane formula gas companies use to calculate their royalty payments. 

The new royalty regime is finally due to take effect on January 1, 2027. And until last week, Eby and his ministers were promising an influx of gas industry cash.

The real numbers, it turns out, are billions less than predicted. And that tells us the new royalty deal is a flop. In fact, some experts suspect it will collect even less money than the old system.

The fracking and pipeline companies are raking in massive profits, thanks to the war in the Persian Gulf. Meanwhile our energy bills go up, and B.C.’s budget deficit gets bigger.

So what happened? Either this math-challenged government was outmaneuvered by oil and gas lobbyists, or they are knowingly giving away a public resource for next to nothing. 

I suspect it’s a bit of both. Premier Eby is desperate to secure final investment decisions for new LNG projects. But the foreign billionaires behind these terminals want the gas for free.

The new royalty rates, due to kick in less than four months from now, are part of the “certainty” Eby is trying to offer investors so they will greenlight LNG Canada 2 and Ksi Lisims LNG.

This is B.C.’s last chance to pause this rotten royalty deal, and negotiate a fair price for our resource. Otherwise the great gas giveaway will be locked in, likely for decades.